Greece’s economy recorded strong real growth in 2021 and 2022, followed by slower but positive growth in 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024. The available statistics also show a changing mix of household demand, investment, exports, imports, employment, inflation, and public debt. Forecasts are identified separately from measured or estimated outcomes.
Contents
- Recent real GDP growth
- Household demand and government consumption
- Investment and the external economy
- Employment and unemployment
- Forecasts for growth and inflation
- Fiscal balance and public debt
- Current account and banking indicators
Recent real GDP growth
The Bank of Greece reported annual real GDP growth of 8.7% in 2021, 5.7% in 2022, and 2.3% in 2023. Its quarterly figures for 2024 show continued year-on-year expansion: 2.1% in the first quarter, 2.2% in the second quarter, and 2.3% in the third quarter. These figures come from the Bank of Greece Note on the Greek Economy, December 6, 2024.
| Period | Real GDP growth |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.7% |
| 2023 | 2.3% |
| 2024 Q1 | 2.1% |
| 2024 Q2 | 2.2% |
| 2024 Q3 | 2.3% |
The pattern is one of positive growth at a slower pace after the exceptionally strong annual readings in 2021 and 2022. The quarterly results for 2024 are measurements for specific quarters, not full-year results.
The IMF estimated that real GDP grew 2.3% year on year across the first three quarters of 2024. That estimate appears in the IMF Greece 2025 Article IV Concluding Statement. The IMF estimate and the Bank of Greece quarterly figures describe the same broad period but should not be treated as interchangeable measures.
Household demand and government consumption
Real private consumption grew 5.1% in 2021 and 8.6% in 2022, according to the Bank of Greece. Growth then moderated to 1.8% in 2023. The quarterly figures were 1.4% in 2024 Q1, 1.6% in Q2, and 1.8% in Q3. This sequence shows continued expansion in household consumption, although at rates below those recorded in 2021 and 2022.
Real government consumption increased 1.8% in 2021, 0.1% in 2022, and 2.6% in 2023. In 2024, it grew 4.0% in Q1 before falling 6.8% in Q2 and 4.2% in Q3. The quarterly movements were therefore uneven, with the first-quarter increase followed by two declines. These measurements are reported in the Bank of Greece Note on the Greek Economy, December 6, 2024.
The OECD forecast table in [OECD Economic Surveys: Greece 2024](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-surveys-greece-2024_ a1f0fd5f-en.html) projected private consumption growth of 1.8% in 2024, 1.2% in 2025, and 1.4% in 2026. It projected government consumption to fall 2.4% in 2024, then rise 1.0% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. These are forecasts, not later observations in the Bank of Greece quarterly series.
Investment and the external economy
Real gross fixed capital formation grew 21.7% in 2021, 16.4% in 2022, and 6.6% in 2023. The Bank of Greece recorded quarterly growth of 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 2.6% in Q2, and 3.7% in Q3. Investment therefore remained positive in each reported period, while its annual growth rate slowed from the high rates recorded in 2021 and 2022.
Real exports of goods and services grew 24.4% in 2021, 6.6% in 2022, and 1.9% in 2023. The quarterly figures were 0.9% in 2024 Q1, a decline of 5.3% in Q2, and growth of 1.7% in Q3. The combined export measure conceals different results for goods and services.
Real exports of goods fell 14.4% in 2021, then grew 4.1% in 2022 and 0.1% in 2023. Goods exports fell 4.3% in 2024 Q1 and 10.2% in Q2 before growing 1.2% in Q3. By contrast, real exports of services grew 37.6% in 2021, 9.4% in 2022, and 3.9% in 2023. Services exports continued to grow in 2024 Q1, Q2, and Q3, at 5.6%, 1.7%, and 2.7%, respectively.
Real imports of goods and services grew 17.4% in 2021, 11.0% in 2022, and 0.9% in 2023. They fell 2.4% in 2024 Q1, then grew 3.7% in Q2 and 8.7% in Q3. The historical and quarterly trade figures in this section are from the Bank of Greece Note on the Greek Economy, December 6, 2024.
The OECD forecast table projected exports to grow 0.7% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 2.7% in 2026. It projected imports to grow 6.0% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 2.8% in 2026. These forecasts provide a forward-looking view distinct from the Bank of Greece’s reported growth rates.
Employment and unemployment
The European Commission’s Economic forecast for Greece reported a seasonally adjusted employment rate of 54.9% for people aged 15–74 in 2024 Q2. The measure refers to that age group and quarter; it is not a general employment rate for all residents.
The OECD forecast table reported an unemployment rate of 11.1% in 2023 and 10.1% in 2024. The European Commission forecast unemployment at 10.4% in 2024, 9.8% in 2025, and 9.2% in 2026. The different 2024 figures reflect different forecasts and sources rather than a single agreed measurement.
The IMF said Greece’s unemployment rate fell to 9.5% in 2024 Q3, describing that level as a historic low since 2009. This is an IMF statement about a measured third-quarter result, while the OECD and European Commission figures above are forecast-table values. The IMF figure is from the Greece 2025 Article IV Concluding Statement.
Forecasts for growth and inflation
The OECD forecast table projected real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 2.5% in 2026. It projected inflation at 3.0%, 2.4%, and 2.1% in those same years. The OECD also projected investment growth of 7.5% in 2024, 8.8% in 2025, and 9.5% in 2026.
The European Commission forecast Greece’s economy to expand by 2.1% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.2% in 2026. Its figures are therefore slightly different from the OECD path for each of the three years. The Commission’s forecast source is the Economic forecast for Greece.
| Forecast source | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| OECD real GDP growth | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| European Commission real GDP growth | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| OECD inflation | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
The OECD projected the general government balance at -0.8% of GDP in 2024, -0.6% in 2025, and -0.7% in 2026. Its primary-balance projection was 2.4% of GDP in each year. The European Commission projected the general government balance at -0.6% of GDP in 2024, -0.1% in 2025, and 0.2% in 2026.
Fiscal balance and public debt
Public debt projections differ materially between the two forecast sources. The OECD projected public debt at 157.3% of GDP in 2024, 152.2% in 2025, and 148.1% in 2026. The European Commission projected gross public debt at 153.1% of GDP in 2024, 146.8% in 2025, and 142.7% in 2026.
Both projections show a declining debt ratio over the forecast period, but the levels are not identical. The OECD series is labeled public debt, while the Commission series is labeled gross public debt. Comparing them requires retaining those source definitions and forecast labels.
The IMF estimated that Greece’s public-debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen by more than 50 percentage points from its 2020 peak by the end of 2024. This is an IMF estimate describing change from a peak, rather than a quoted end-2024 debt ratio. It appears in the Greece 2025 Article IV Concluding Statement.
Current account and banking indicators
The European Commission forecast the current account balance at -7.1% of GDP in 2024, -7.5% in 2025, and -7.2% in 2026. These values represent projected deficits in each year. The IMF separately estimated that the current account deficit widened to 6.9% of GDP in 2024. The IMF estimate and the Commission forecast should be kept distinct because they come from different sources and use different reporting contexts.
The IMF also said that the banking system’s non-performing-loan ratio fell to around 3% in 2024 Q3. This is a banking-system indicator for the third quarter, not a household arrears rate or a public-debt measure. It forms part of the IMF’s Greece 2025 Article IV Concluding Statement.
Taken together, the figures describe positive real GDP growth, moderating private consumption growth, continued investment expansion, uneven goods exports, stronger services exports, and rising imports in 2024 Q3. They also show lower unemployment readings in recent estimates and forecasts, alongside persistent current-account deficits and declining—but still high—public-debt ratios in the published projections.